Study on Separation and Forecast of Longterm Deflection Based on Time Series Analysis

Abstract:

In view of the multiscale property of deflection and the periodicity under temperature load, a strategy was proposed to separate the deflection and extract the longterm trend, which combines Welch method with Center Moving Averages Method. A prediction model of the deformation was established based on ARIMA model. Taking Bridge of Huanggang Yangtze River as an example to issue the correlation between temperature and deflection, and test of numerical simulation was made to validate the effectiveness of the algorithm. Processing and analysis of the measured data indicate that the approach of this article has high precision and reliability which could provide data support for damage identification of bridge.