Application of Aggregated Lane Traffic Data from Dualloop Detector to Crash Risk Evaluation

Abstract:

In crash risk evaluation study, the relevance between crash occurrence and traffic conditions was analyzed through statistical model. In the model, traffic conditions prior to each crash and corresponding noncrashes were extracted as independent variables, while 0 or 1 was taken as dependent variable for crashes or noncrashes. For the purpose of searching the validity of aggregated lane traffic data from dualloop detectors of Shanghai Urban Expressway System applied to crash risk evaluation, aggregated lane traffic data and crash data were used to develop crash risk evaluation model by condition logistic regression, and the predictive performance of the model was tested. The results show that lower speed and higher volume variation crossing lanes will increase the likelihood of crash occurrence; and the aggregated lane traffic data from dualloop detectors of Shanghai Urban Expressway System can be applied to crash risk evaluation study.

Key words:urban expressway; crash risk estimation; condition Logistic regression; aggregated lane traffic data; feasibility