Fuzzy Neural Network System for Urban Expressway Speed Prediction on Rainy Days

doi:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2016.11.008

Home > Archive>Volume 44, Issue 11, 2016 >1695-1701. DOI:10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2016.11.008

Fuzzy Neural Network System for Urban Expressway Speed Prediction on Rainy Days
DOI:
                        10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2016.11.008
                    
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                        SUN HongyunSUN Hongyun
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
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YANG JinshunYANG Jinshun
School of Automobile and Transportation, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266555, China
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LI LinboLI Linbo
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
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WU BingWU Bing
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
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Abstract:

A fuzzy neural network system was developed to improve urban expressway shortterm speed prediction accuracy on rainy days, taking fuzzy influencing factors such as traffic volume, occupancy and precipitation, as well as their nonlinear interaction into account. Based on the traffic flow and weather data of Shanghai, the best model structure was determined and its performance was evaluated against those of the existing autoregressive integrated moving average model, the back propagation neutral network, and the support vector machines model. The results show that the root mean square error and mean absolute percent error of the fuzzy neural network system are 3.05 km?h-1 and 3.95% respectively, which outperform those of the other three prediction models.

Key words:urban expressway; speed prediction; fuzzy neural network; traffic state; rainfall

Reference

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SUN Hongyun, YANG Jinshun, LI Linbo, WU Bing. Fuzzy Neural Network System for Urban Expressway Speed Prediction on Rainy Days[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(11):1695~1701

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Received:October 06,2015
Revised:August 30,2016
Adopted:July 11,2016
Online: December 02,2016
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