ESTIMATING DIRECTIONAL EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN MIXED CLIMATES COMBINED WITH TYPHOON

Abstract:

At present, the available wind observation data for estimation of directional extreme wind speeds is lacking, especially the data of tropical cyclones. Up to the present, there is still no method can provide directional extreme wind speed estimates in mixed climates. In this paper, the samples of extreme wind speeds in typhoon climate and normal climate are separately obtained using the Monte Carlo method. For the typhoon climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds are simulated by the typhoon wind field model established by Yan Meng. For the normal climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds are simulated by the distribution function fitted from the wind observation data. Then, a new method of estimating the directional extreme wind speeds is proposed. The results of estimated extreme wind speeds are presented and discussed using Shanghai as an example. The results demonstrate the distribution of extreme wind speeds in those two kinds of climates and the reasonable transition between these climates. The strong correlation among the extreme wind speeds in different directions is also shown in the mixed climate.

Key words:Mixed climate; directional effect; Extreme wind speed; Typhoon simulation; Correlation