Analysis of Causation of RearEnd Incidents Based on Naturalistic Driving Study

Abstract:

Based on the rear-end incidents extracted from the China naturalistic driving data, the DREAM (driving reliability and error analysis method) was modified and used to identify contribution factors and causation patterns in these incidents. Those rearend incidents were respectively classified in different driving scenarios, and the logic diagrams of the contribution factors with different detailed categories were obtained. The results showed that the main factors behind the rearend incidents was the adoption of “insufficient force” and “small safety margins”. The characteristics of critical events of four detail categories in the rearend scenarios were also analyzed. In contrast to the results obtained from previous studies in the US and Europe, the deepseated contribution factors was driver’s habitual expectation for the specific driving behavior of other traffic users, instead of the second driving behavior.

Key words:naturalistic driving; rear-end critical scenarios; driving reliability and error analysis method(DREAM); causation analysis