Dynamic Vine-Copula Prediction Approach of Bridge Girder System Reliability Considering Structural Safety

Abstract:

To reasonably predict safety-based dynamic reliability of the existing bridge girder system, the dynamic extreme stress data at the dangerous monitored points was adopted to build Bayesian dynamic vine- Copula model(BDVCM) through combining vine-Copula technique with Bayesian recursive processes about dynamic linear models(DLM), further, with first order second moment (FOSM) method, dynamic reliability of the bridge girder system considering time-variant nonlinear correlation of failure modes at the multiple dangerous monitored points was predicted. The dynamic monitored extreme stress data at five sections from a bridge girder was provided to illustrate the proposed model and method. The results show that predicted dynamic reliability of the bridge girder with considering the time-variant nonlinear correlation of failure modes at the multiple dangerous monitored points is bigger than that without considering the time-dependent nonlinear correlation of failure modes. It is illustrated that the predicted results without considering the time-variant nonlinear correlation of failure modes at the multiple dangerous monitored points are conservative.