Survival Analysis of Time-to-Line Crossing of Vehicles on Snow and Slippery Road

Abstract:

Lane changing behaviors on the expressway were studied by means of the driving simulator in Tongji University. The survival analysis method was adopted to study the distribution characteristics of the time-to-line crossing (TLC) in lane changing, and establish the Cox proportional hazards model by conducting semi-parametric survival analysis, to quantitatively analyze the influence of potential factors on TLC. The results show that factors such as the adhesion coefficient of the pavements, the car-following state, and the driving speed of the vehicle have significant influences on the TLC value. The hazard rate of the vehicle driving following the other to finish line crossing increases by 1.29 times of the one driving freely. Besides, for each 0.1 increase in road friction coefficient or 1 km ? h^-1 increase in vehicle speed, the hazard rate increases by 1.14 times and 1.02 times respectively, with the TLC being shortened accordingly. However, when the initial position of lane changing is 1m further away from the target lane, the hazard rate is reduced by 0.23 times and the TLC prolonged. In addition, there is no significant difference between the TLC in different directions of lane changing.

Key words:driving behaviors;time-to-line crossing;slippery road;driving simulation;survival analysis