Traffic System Performance Prediction Model Based on Microscopic Traffic Simulation and Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

Abstract:

A prediction framework based on the short-term traffic volume prediction and application microscopic simulation model was developed for short-term prediction of traffic system performance.First,an application simulation model was developed,calibrated and validated based on the real traffic system condition and research objectives.Then,a combined prediction model based on the wavelet analysis and ARIMA model was used to predict the on-line traffic volume for the next time step.The output from the application simulation model was used as the prediction of the traffic system performance based on the input of predicted traffic volume.The case study shows that this prediction model can output good prediction of traffic system performance.