Market Forecasting Modeling Study for New Energy Vehicle Based on AHP and Logit Regression

Abstract:

According to China consumer purchase behavior and utility maximum, AHP method is used to analyze the weight of each main decision factors such as cost, reliability, dynamic performance, image, safety and conveniences. China NEV market share forecasting model is established based on logit regression analysis between USA, Europe and Japan NEV market share and customer utility. The forecasting model studies three different government regulation scenarios: basic scenario, general scenario and radical scenario. The results of the model indicate that government regulations have obvious impact on NEV market performance. In 2015, NEV is expected to account for 14% market share under basic scenario, 23% under general scenario and 36% under radical scenario. Hybrid Energy Vehicle and Battery Energy Vehicle take account of the biggest market share under three scenarios, Fuel Cell Vehicle accounts for the least market share through 0.25% to 0.85% under the three scenarios.