Traffic Breakdown Phenomenon and Evolution Model of Traffic Perturbation

Abstract:

An evolution model of traffic perturbation is established to verify spontaneous traffic breakdown phenomenon indirectly.Based on the principle of car following behavior,driving behavior is defined as two styles,“inheriting” and “altering”.Deceleration wave and acceleration wave formed when vehicles drive in and drive out of a perturbation are calculated based on the traffic wave theory.Driving behavior, deceleration and acceleration wave speed, and time-headway distribution of arriving traffic are used to establish the evolution model of traffic perturbation.Hysteresis phenomenon and “secondary perturbation” are considered in this model.Numerical simulation is carried out with the Monte Carlo method to calculate and compare the probability of traffic breakdown (PB) of five models,and the impact of several important parameters on PB are analyzed.

Key words:traffic breakdown; traffic perturbation; probability of traffic breakdown; car following behavior; theory of traffic wave