Study on Probabilistic Microscopic Models for Pedestrianvehicle Traffic Conflict and Collision on Urban Road

Abstract:

The safety perception characteristics of pedestrian crossing the urban road was defined according to the critical theory.Based on a study of the microscopic mechanism of pedestrianvehicle traffic conflict and collision,the probabilistic microscopic models for pedestrianvehicle traffic conflict and collision were established.Then, the probability value was calculated by the formula of Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo simulation for an analysis of the influence of safety perception,reaction time, traffic volumes and vehicle speed on pedestrians. Finally,the indicator of risk evaluation was established on the basis of 90% confidence level of probability. The results can provide the best foundation for the implementation of traffic regulation.

Key words:traffic safety; pedestrians; probabilistic microscopic models for traffic conflict and collision; Monte Carlo simulation; indicator of risk evaluation