Forecasting Model of Intercity Trip Distribution with Consideration of Connections Between Headquarters and Subsidiaries
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China

Clc Number:

U125

  • Article
  • | |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference [28]
  • |
  • Related [20]
  • | | |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    The influential factors which can describe the connection between cities when it comes to intercity trip distribution were analyzed based on the intercity travel purpose. The effect of the connection between headquarters of enterprises and their subsidiaries on the intercity travel demand was discussed, and a variable of headquarters-subsidiaries links was put forward. The quantification method of the variable was also included. The variable was used to construct the intercity trip distribution forecasting model, and the model was calibrated by using 2010 Inter-Regional Travel Survey data and economic census data in Japan. Finally, the variation of the headquarters-subsidiaries links with time was discussed. The results show that the forecasting model performs better after adding the variable.

    Reference
    [1] ZIPF G K. The P1P2/D hypothesis: on the intercity movement of persons[J]. American Sociological Review, 1946, 11(6): 677.
    [2] 田志立,周海涛. 交通分布修正引力模型的应用[J]. 公路交通科技, 1996, 13(1): 48.
    [3] 袁婧. 城市群城际公路客运交通生成与分布预测研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2007.
    [4] 高嵩. 基于神经网络的城市群客运交通需求预测研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2011.
    [5] ABDEL-AAL M M M. Calibrating a trip distribution gravity model stratified by the trip purposes for the city of Alexandria[J]. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2014, 53(3): 677.
    [6] FOTHERINGHAM A S. Spatial competition and agglomeration in urban modelling[J]. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 1985, 17(2): 213.
    [7] KERKMAN K, MARTENS K, MEURS H. A multilevel spatial interaction model of transit flows incorporating spatial and network autocorrelation[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2017, 60: 155.
    [8] WIRASINGHE S C, KUMARAGE A S. An aggregate demand model for intercity passenger travel in Sri Lanka[J]. Transportation, 1998, 25(1): 77.
    [9] YAO E, MORIKAWA T. A study of on integrated intercity travel demand model[J]. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005, 39(4): 367.
    [10] 伍拾煤,裴玉龙,程国柱. 密集城镇群客流分布双层最大熵模型[J]. 中国公路学报, 2014, 27(5): 164.
    [11] 朱鸿国,张祎祎,马壮林,等. 城际间出行分布量预测方法[J]. 长安大学学报:自然科学版, 2017, 37(5): 104.
    [12] CASCETTA E, PAPOLA A. Dominance among alternatives in random utility models[J]. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, 2009, 43(2): 170.
    [13] SIMINI F, GONZALEZ M, MARITAN A, et al. A universal model for mobility and migration patterns[J]. Nature, 2012, 484(7392): 96.
    [14] YANG Y, HERRERA C, EAGLE N, et al. Limits of predictability in commuting flows in the absence of data for calibration[J]. Scientific Reports, 2014, 4: 5662.
    [15] 刘海洲,周涛,高志刚. 基于产业关联度的都市圈轨道交通客流分布预测[J]. 城市轨道交通研究, 2010, 13(1): 15.
    [16] 许振田,刘福生,孙志华. 基于产业关联度的城际轨道交通客流预测[J]. 交通科技与经济, 2011, 13(4): 62.
    [17] 郑清菁,戴特奇,陶卓霖,等. 重力模型参数空间差异研究:以中国城市间铁路客流为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(12): 1659.
    [18] YAN X, WANG W, GAO Z, et al. Universal model of individual and population mobility on diverse spatial scales[J]. Nature Communications, 2017, 8: 1639.
    [19] KUMARAGE A S, WIRASINGHE S C. Transferability of aggregate total demand model[J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 1995, 22: 283.
    [20] YANG Y, LI D, LI X R. Public transport connectivity and intercity tourist flows[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2019, 58(1): 25.
    [21] 徐双应,马建,白小丽,等. 基于引力模型的县域区际公路客运需求分析方法[J]. 中国公路学报, 2011, 24(4): 101.
    [22] 马静,林贵宝,罗小强. 基于用地结构熵的广义熵重力模型[J]. 长安大学学报:自然科学版, 2014, 34(3): 113.
    [23] LI Y, WANG H, ZHAO J, et al. Multisource data-driven modeling method for estimation of intercity trip distribution[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018, 2018: 1.
    [24] 褚琴,陈绍宽. 重力模型标定方法及应用研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2003, 3(2): 51.
    [25] 金钟范. 基于企业母子联系的中国跨国城市网络结构:以中韩城市之间联系为例[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29(9): 1670.
    [26] MURDOCH J. Actor-networks and the evolution of economic forms: combining description and explanation in theories of regulation, flexible specialization, and networks[J]. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 1995, 27(5): 731.
    [27] YEUNG H W. Critical reviews of geographical perspectives on business organizations and the organization of production: towards a network approach[J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1994, 18(4): 460.
    [28] 成艳,叶霞飞,王治,等. 城市轨道交通高峰时段站间起讫点矩阵预测模型[J]. 同济大学学报:自然科学版, 2018, 46(3): 346.
    Cited by
    Comments
    Comments
    分享到微博
    Submit
Get Citation

TAO Siran, YE Xiafei. Forecasting Model of Intercity Trip Distribution with Consideration of Connections Between Headquarters and Subsidiaries[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2020,48(9):1319~1327

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:413
  • PDF: 826
  • HTML: 362
  • Cited by: 0
History
  • Received:December 16,2019
  • Online: September 27,2020
Article QR Code