Lane Management in Off-Ramp Affected Zone of Urban Expressway Considering Lane-Change Risk

Abstract:

This paper aims to optimize traffic organization in the off-ramp affected zone of urban expressway， reduce the lane-change risk of leaving vehicles and thus improve the safety and efficiency of traffic operation. Based on the dataset from Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study （SH-NDS）， the trajectory data samples of leaving vehicles in the off-ramp affected zone of expressway were extracted and lane-change risk evaluation method and classification standard were established. Targeting at three types of off-ramp areas of expressway， a lane-change risk model was established by using the binomial Logistic model， considering comprehensive factors in terms of drivers， vehicles， road and environment. Therefore， the influencing degree of different factors was revealed and lane-change risk probabilities were obtained. Based on vehicle operation information and lane-change risk model， reasonable（latest） lane-change positions of leaving vehicles were calculated and corresponding lane management methods were proposed when lane-change risk was within a certain range.