Prediction of Urban Hourly Water Demand Based on Synthetic Weight Factor

Abstract:

A prediction method of urban hourly water demand based on synthetic weight factor is proposed. According to the water consumption data of the days and weeks before the forecasting day， the average hourly water consumption is calculated. Then， the synthetic weight factor is introduced to construct the water consumption model of the day before the forecasting day. Combined with the daily water demand forecasting data， the optimal continuous days， the optimal continuous weeks and the synthetic weight factors are used to forecast the hourly water demand of the forecasting day. The case study shows that the average absolute percentage error of the predicted values is small.

Key words:urban hourly water consumption;synthetic modeling;weight factor;water demand forecasting