A Quantitative Method for Studying Passenger Decision-Making Preference in Subway Emergency Evacuation

Abstract:

This paper aimed to study the influence of distance， density， pedestrian flow， and visibility on the heterogeneity of passenger decision-making preference in emergency evacuation in subway stations. The conditional Logit model and random parameter Logit model were used to quantify the utility coefficients of the four influencing factors based on the data collected from 20 emergency evacuation scenarios， and the heterogeneity of pedestrian decision preference was quantitatively analyzed according to the marginal probability distribution of the utility coefficients. The results show that the distance， density， and pedestrian flow have negative influences while visibility has a positive utility. The goodness of fit of the random parameter Logit model is higher than that of the conditional Logit model. The coefficients of the four influencing factors are random variables. Distance has the lowest level of heterogeneity while density and pedestrian flow have a slightly higher level of heterogeneity， and visibility has the highest level of heterogeneity.

Key words:urban subway stations;emergency evacuation behavior;random parameters Logit model;preference heterogeneity