Passenger Route Choice Model Under the Condition of Urban Rail Transit Operation Disruption

Abstract:

To describe the route choice behavior of passengers under the condition of urban rail transit operation disruptions， a passenger route choice model was proposed. According to the different effects of operation disruptions， passengers were classified into different types and the corresponding route choice strategies were given. Then， the calculation method of generalized time cost was determined based on the travel time and travel cost. Considering the impact of the disruption duration on passengers， the value principle of passenger reference point in disruptions was constructed. Finally， a passenger route choice model was proposed based on the cumulative prospect theory and the nested logit model. The experimental results show the validity and accuracy of the model is less than 10% of the relative error between the calculated results and the questionnaire data. The passenger’s route choice changes dynamically with the change of disruption duration. It changes sharply in the short-time duration and is relatively stable in the long-time duration. The higher the passenger’s acceptance of travel cost， the more inclined they are to choose the route with a short travel time. The lower the endurance of passengers to disruptions， the more sensitive they are to the comprehensive value of the route.

Key words:urban rail transit;route choice;cumulative prospect theory;operation disruptions;nested logit model