Hierarchical Bayesian Model-based Robust Fragility Assessment Method for Liquefaction-induced Lateral Displacement

Abstract:

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model-based robust fragility assessment method for liquefaction-induced lateral displacement. The difference between incremental dynamic analysis （IDA） curves is quantified by the hierarchical Bayesian model， the distribution of the lateral displacement is predicted with the sampling method， and the robust fragility and exceedance curve for the liquefaction-induced lateral displacement are established. Finally， a sample site that has experienced the liquefaction-induced lateral displacement is taken to illustrate the process of establishing the robust fragility and exceedance curve based on the proposed method. The results are compared with relevant methods and it is shown that the proposed method can accurately simulate the distribution of IDA curves， and quantify the uncertainty associated with the robust fragility and exceedance curve.

Key words:liquefaction-induced lateral displacement;hierarchical Bayesian model;robust fragility assessment;performance-based earthquake engineering;incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)