Analysis of Russia-Ukraine Conflicts Situation and Its Economic Impact Using Night-Time Light Remote Sensing

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the situation and course of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict based on time-series night-time light remote sensing data， and further investigated the economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in relation to the spatial and temporal variations in gross domestic product（GDP）. There was a significant reduction in light intensity at the beginning of the conflict and a recovery in light intensity at a later stage， with the timing of the light changes being consistent with major events in the conflict. The capital city and Russian-occupied areas did not show a significant decrease in light during the conflict， whereas the states where conflict occurs were more frequently significantly affected. Light distributions showed significant positive correlations throughout the conflict. However， there were differences in clustering distributions and hot and cold spot locations at different stages of the conflict. The spatial distribution of GDP shows that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a sharp economic decline in other regions except the capital， port cities and Russian-occupied areas. Areas with heavy light losses were more consistent with the main crop production areas in Ukraine， which will lead to a decrease in crop yields and thus affect the economy.

Key words:night-time light remote sensing;Russian-Ukrainian conflict;night light index;spatial autocorrelation;economic impact