Slope Reliability Assessment Considering Uncertainty Associated with Rainfall Intensity Temporal Patterns

Abstract:

A novel approach for slope reliability assessment considering uncertainty associated with rainfall intensity temporal patterns is proposed. Stochastic rainfall sequences considering rainfall intensity temporal patterns are generated based on skewness and kurtosis. These series are incorporated into a coupled seepage–stability model of slope， and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to estimate slope failure probability. The proposed approach is applied to a conceptual slope in Zhejiang Province to evaluate the impact of rainfall intensity time patterns on slope failure probability and failure time. The results show that， under the same total rainfall and duration， early-peaking and relatively uniform rainfall patterns lead to greater infiltration， reduce soil strength， and thus increase the likelihood of slope failure while shortening the time to failure. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating rainfall intensity temporal patterns in landslide early warning systems.