Assessment of Cascading Failures in Transportation and Water Supply Networks Based on Percolation Theory

Abstract:

To address the modeling and quantitative assessment of cascading failures in emergency events induced by the coupling between transportation networks and water supply networks， this study takes the central urban area of Shanghai as a case study. Using Taxi GPS data， along with GIS （geographic information system） data for road and water supply networks， it constructs a dynamically coupled network through spatial matching and temporal attribute integration. Based on percolation theory， it proposes a network influence index to quantify the impacts of cascading failures. The results indicate that there are significant spatiotemporal coupling effects between the transportation network and the water supply network. In particular， during peak hours， failures in the water supply network have a direct impact on the connectivity and operational efficiency of the transportation network. Furthermore， by developing decoupling strategies， it proposes optimization schemes for network planning and maintenance， which can reduce cross-network cascading failure effects between the two networks. These findings provide a useful reference for enhancing the resilience， safety， and operational reliability of critical urban infrastructure systems.